Did the people who stayed home cause Jim Marshall to lose his seat?

After the 2010 General Election,  four Democrats continue to represent Georgia in the House of Representatives, but one veteran Congressman, Jim Marshall, was knocked off by the Republican landslide.


What happened?  Was it the TV ad depicting Jim riding to Washington with Speaker Nancy Pelosi?


No, not necessarily.  Not if you look at the details - the boring statistics - the facts. Compare the last two elections, 2008 and 2010.

Although Republican Goddard, in the 2008 election, polled almost 15,000 votes more than Republican Scott did in 2010, he lost the election against Democrat Jim Marshall with less than 43 percent of the votes.

In every county of the 8th district voters stayed home in 2010.  In 2008 there were over 274,000 votes cast, but this year less than 195,000, a difference of about 80,000. In the Eighth Congressional District of Georgia 80,000 voters stayed home.

In Laurens County (Dublin) the voter turnout was 5,000 less than in 2008.  Republican Scott received about the same number of votes this year as Republican Goddard did in 2008 (7,803  to 7,743) the difference was that Democrat Marshall, who received 11,162 votes in 2008, polled only 5,768, barely half of what he received against Goddard two years earlier.

We invite you to compare the two charts, 2008 and 2010.  You will be amazed. Share this information with your friends.

U.S. Representative, District 8 

2008 

100% of precincts reporting

PR=Precincts Reporting

TP=Total Precincts

			Goddard (R)  117,446	Marshall (D)  157,241	Totals 274,687
			42.8%	57.2%	100.0%
County	PR	TP
BALDWIN	6	6	737	1,493	2,230
BEN HILL	7	7	2,495	3,299	5,794
BIBB	43	43	18,907	45,043	63,950
BLECKLEY	3	3	2,206	2,726	4,932
BUTTS	7	7	4,686	3,917	8,603
COLQUITT	21	21	6,910	5,677	12,587
DODGE	18	18	3,107	4,617	7,724
HOUSTON	26	26	26,447	27,969	54,416
IRWIN	10	10	1,699	1,936	3,635
JASPER	9	9	2,902	2,701	5,603
JONES	13	13	5,089	7,053	12,142
LAURENS	20	20	7,803	11,162	18,965
MONROE	16	16	5,697	5,998	11,695
NEWTON	18	18	13,239	14,610	27,849
PULASKI	5	5	1,618	2,173	3,791
TIFT	14	14	7,044	6,467	13,511
TURNER	5	5	1,389	1,947	3,336
TWIGGS	7	7	1,286	3,020	4,306
WILCOX	8	8	1,354	1,665	3,019
WILKINSON	11	11	1,471	2,994	4,465
WORTH	7	7	1,360	774	2,134

U.S. Representative, District 8 

2010 

99% of precincts reporting

   Total Precincts: 231

   Election Day Voting: 231 / 231   (100%)

   Early Voting (In Person): 231 / 231   (100%)

   Early Voting (By Mail): 231 / 231   (100%)

PPR = Percentage of Precincts Reporting

		Scott (R)  102,718	Marshall (D)  92,149	Totals 194,867
		52.7%	47.3%	100.0%
County	PPR
BALDWIN	99%	689	835	1,524
BEN HILL	99%	2,096	1,862	3,958
BIBB	99%	16,381	27,438	43,819
BLECKLEY	99%	2,016	1,339	3,355
BUTTS	99%	3,933	2,183	6,116
COLQUITT	100%	6,154	2,842	8,996
DODGE	99%	3,171	2,128	5,299
HOUSTON	99%	21,073	17,674	38,747
IRWIN	99%	1,532	1,073	2,605
JASPER	100%	2,572	1,623	4,195
JONES	99%	4,517	4,097	8,614
LAURENS	99%	7,743	5,768	13,511
MONROE	99%	5,450	3,439	8,889
NEWTON	99%	10,939	9,240	20,179
PULASKI	100%	1,479	1,114	2,593
TIFT	99%	6,405	3,355	9,760
TURNER	99%	1,443	968	2,411
TWIGGS	99%	1,177	2,002	3,179
WILCOX	99%	1,262	826	2,088
WILKINSON	99%	1,448	1,941	3,389
WORTH	99%	1,238	402	1,640

Can you answer these questions?

Who are the people who stayed home?

Why did they vote in 2008 but stayed home in 2010?

Will they show up and vote in 2012?

Consider that in every county the Republican vote was less this year than it was in 2008.  Goddard was a formidable opponent. Well respected, with a wide-standing reputation in the whole district, while Scott had a puny record compared to Goddard's.

My conclusions and predictions are: 

1- That the Republican vote in District 8 maxxed out in 2008.  

2- If Marshall doesn't have anything better to do in 2012, he could run again and easily win.

3- It would take some heavy lifting for the Republicans, who will control the congressional redistricting, to divide the state any worse than the past and current divisions.

4- Unless the world-wide economic crisis continues or gets worse, President Obama will have better ratings in 2012. His 2008 voters will return to the polls in 2012, and it will be crying time for traditional Republicans in the Eighth District.

If you live in the Eighth District and voted against Marshall..... 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Marshall_(Georgia)

William A. Ricks

http://billricksofsoperton.blogspot.com 

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